Election AV: Well, the Trump panic trade is fully in progress

Trump’s hanging onto that lead, and we’ve gotten some swing-state surprises. And markets are ugly, folks.
Continue reading: Election AV: Well, the Trump panic trade is fully in progress

Trump's hanging onto that lead, and we've gotten some swing-state surprises. And markets are ugly, folks.

Continue reading: Election AV: Well, the Trump panic trade is fully in progress

Election AV: Those 5000 PredictIt traders have been busy

Well, it’s been a little bumpy for this blog’s favourite only option to trade in election prediction markets.

— PredictIt (@PredictIt) November 9, 2016

Continue reading: Election AV: Those 5000 PredictIt traders have been busy

Well, it’s been a little bumpy for this blog’s favourite only option to trade in election prediction markets.

— PredictIt (@PredictIt) November 9, 2016

Continue reading: Election AV: Those 5000 PredictIt traders have been busy

Election AV: Trump stress trades appear to be on for now

So, Virginia and Florida started leaning towards Trump, making the election a closer call than some pundits expected.

No official swing-state surprises just yet. But traders appear to be considering the possibility of a Trump presidency, and it’s not terribly pretty.

Continue reading: Election AV: Trump stress trades appear to be on for now

So, Virginia and Florida started leaning towards Trump, making the election a closer call than some pundits expected.

No official swing-state surprises just yet. But traders appear to be considering the possibility of a Trump presidency, and it’s not terribly pretty.

Continue reading: Election AV: Trump stress trades appear to be on for now

Election AV: The arbitrary spending limit that shall not be named

The d— ceiling could soon start looming over money markets yet again if the Democrats don’t sweep the House and Senate. (Why won’t it just die?)
Continue reading: Election AV: The arbitrary spending limit that shall not be named

The d--- ceiling could soon start looming over money markets yet again if the Democrats don't sweep the House and Senate. (Why won't it just die?)

Continue reading: Election AV: The arbitrary spending limit that shall not be named

There’s no yield, and Citi isn’t going to take it anymore

Citi’s Matt King has some harsh words for central bankers ahead of this week’s gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming: he says they’ve broken the market.

King echoes a group of fund managers who say central banks’ stimulus efforts are distorting the way global markets function. The problem is this: with negative yields on $13 trillion of safe assets, investment managers are crowding into the shrinking group of investments with yield — or into securities they may be able to sell to central banks.

Continue reading: There’s no yield, and Citi isn’t going to take it anymore

Citi's Matt King has some harsh words for central bankers ahead of this week's gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming: he says they've broken the market.

King echoes a group of fund managers who say central banks' stimulus efforts are distorting the way global markets function. The problem is this: with negative yields on $13 trillion of safe assets, investment managers are crowding into the shrinking group of investments with yield -- or into securities they may be able to sell to central banks.

Continue reading: There’s no yield, and Citi isn’t going to take it anymore

If you’d rather see the apocalypse happen than agree with Bill Ackman…

John Hempton of Bronte Capital has good news for you.

Hempton, an avowed Herbalife bull, is sceptical about whether any inventory loading happened at the company. When a firm requires its distributors to buy lots of inventory, it’s one sign of a pyramid scheme, which grows by recruiting distributors instead of actually selling products. Hempton says there probably wasn’t inventory loading because the company refunds distributors for unsold products.

A look at Herbalife’s website shows that they did offer refunds as of 2014, with one caveat found in a footnote of its pitchbook: “If requested within 90 days for the return of the HMP [Note: That’s the Herbalife Member Pack, a starter pack] and one year for the return of resalable inventory, upon leaving the business.” That’s a conditional refund, to be sure.

Still, Hempton has been hunting for the telltale distributors with tons of unsold Herbalife shakes in his or her basement, and has had trouble — but for one grim exception.

Continue reading: If you’d rather see the apocalypse happen than agree with Bill Ackman…

John Hempton of Bronte Capital has good news for you.

Hempton, an avowed Herbalife bull, is sceptical about whether any inventory loading happened at the company. When a firm requires its distributors to buy lots of inventory, it's one sign of a pyramid scheme, which grows by recruiting distributors instead of actually selling products. Hempton says there probably wasn't inventory loading because the company refunds distributors for unsold products.

A look at Herbalife's website shows that they did offer refunds as of 2014, with one caveat found in a footnote of its pitchbook: "If requested within 90 days for the return of the HMP [Note: That's the Herbalife Member Pack, a starter pack] and one year for the return of resalable inventory, upon leaving the business." That's a conditional refund, to be sure.

Still, Hempton has been hunting for the telltale distributors with tons of unsold Herbalife shakes in his or her basement, and has had trouble -- but for one grim exception.

Continue reading: If you’d rather see the apocalypse happen than agree with Bill Ackman…