Snap AV: immigration and the US labour force

The net effect of immigration on the employment and wages of US-born workers is often the source of contentious debates.

Less in dispute, which is unsurprising given that it’s a matter of simple arithmetic, is the effect of immigration on the growth of the US population and prime-age labour force. From a recent note by Goldman Sachs economists, emphasis ours:

Continue reading: Snap AV: immigration and the US labour force

The net effect of immigration on the employment and wages of US-born workers is often the source of contentious debates.

Less in dispute, which is unsurprising given that it’s a matter of simple arithmetic, is the effect of immigration on the growth of the US population and prime-age labour force. From a recent note by Goldman Sachs economists, emphasis ours:

Continue reading: Snap AV: immigration and the US labour force

What’s bad for Australia is good for New Zealand?

It’s not usually a good thing when your biggest export market, biggest source of foreign direct investment, and the country that owns your entire banking oligopoly experiences a major economic slowdown. Yet New Zealand, at least in the past decade or so, watched its fortunes wane as Australia’s mining sector boomed, while the bust in Oz has gone hand-in-hand with stronger growth in Middle Earth.

Continue reading: What’s bad for Australia is good for New Zealand?

It's not usually a good thing when your biggest export market, biggest source of foreign direct investment, and the country that owns your entire banking oligopoly experiences a major economic slowdown. Yet New Zealand, at least in the past decade or so, watched its fortunes wane as Australia's mining sector boomed, while the bust in Oz has gone hand-in-hand with stronger growth in Middle Earth.

Continue reading: What’s bad for Australia is good for New Zealand?

Employment and immigration in oil-exporting countries

Citigroup suggests a rather grim fix for oil-exporting countries struggling with the drop in crude prices: Lower ambitions for economic growth, and fewer unskilled immigrants.
Limiting immigration is a tactic that’s appealed to other countries recently…

Citigroup suggests a rather grim fix for oil-exporting countries struggling with the drop in crude prices: Lower ambitions for economic growth, and fewer unskilled immigrants.

Limiting immigration is a tactic that's appealed to other countries recently (we'd make a snarky comment about the UK, if only we Yanks were in any place to feel superior). But we're willing to at least entertain the logic, since GCC countries -- the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia -- are in a very different situation than Europe and the US. They've historically relied heavily on foreign nationals' labour in the private sector, and employed domestic workers in oil-funded government jobs.

Continue reading: Employment and immigration in oil-exporting countries

Sweden’s job market isn’t working for non-EU migrants

Compared to most rich countries, Sweden handled the twin challenges of the 2007-8 crisis and the never-ending euro crisis with aplomb.

The share of people in Sweden with a job is at all-time highs. Real output per person is at all-time highs, and has grown much more than in most other rich countries over the past ten years. Underlying inflation is essentially at its long-term average. The trade surplus remains massive. And Swedish house prices continue to float into the stratosphere.

Yet despite all this, Sweden’s central bank has been unusually aggressive in trying to stimulate its economy by cutting interest rates far below zero, buying assets, and cheapening its (already undervalued) currency.

We recently had the chance to talk to a former Swedish central banker about this. He suggested the Riksbank could potentially justify its behaviour as an attempt to heal structural problems in Sweden’s jobs market.

Continue reading: Sweden’s job market isn’t working for non-EU migrants

Compared to most rich countries, Sweden handled the twin challenges of the 2007-8 crisis and the never-ending euro crisis with aplomb.

The share of people in Sweden with a job is at all-time highs. Real output per person is at all-time highs, and has grown much more than in most other rich countries over the past ten years. Underlying inflation is essentially at its long-term average. The trade surplus remains massive. And Swedish house prices continue to float into the stratosphere.

Yet despite all this, Sweden’s central bank has been unusually aggressive in trying to stimulate its economy by cutting interest rates far below zero, buying assets, and cheapening its (already undervalued) currency.

We recently had the chance to talk to a former Swedish central banker about this. He suggested the Riksbank could potentially justify its behaviour as an attempt to heal structural problems in Sweden’s jobs market.

Continue reading: Sweden’s job market isn’t working for non-EU migrants

Could immigration controls be the solution to New Zealand’s frothy housing market?

Here’s an interesting thought from Grant Spencer, the Deputy Governor in charge of financial stability at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:

While boosting the capacity for development and housing supply is paramount, it is also important to explore policies that will keep the demand for housing more in line with supply capacity…We cannot ignore that the 160,000 net inflow of permanent and long-term migrants over the last 3 years has generated an unprecedented increase in the population and a significant boost to housing demand…There may be merit in reviewing whether migration policy is securing the number and composition of skills intended. While any adjustments would operate at the margin, they could over time help to moderate the housing market imbalance.

Continue reading: Could immigration controls be the solution to New Zealand’s frothy housing market?

Here's an interesting thought from Grant Spencer, the Deputy Governor in charge of financial stability at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:

While boosting the capacity for development and housing supply is paramount, it is also important to explore policies that will keep the demand for housing more in line with supply capacity...We cannot ignore that the 160,000 net inflow of permanent and long-term migrants over the last 3 years has generated an unprecedented increase in the population and a significant boost to housing demand...There may be merit in reviewing whether migration policy is securing the number and composition of skills intended. While any adjustments would operate at the margin, they could over time help to moderate the housing market imbalance.

Continue reading: Could immigration controls be the solution to New Zealand’s frothy housing market?