Dollar shortage *alert* (plus global trade *alert*)

The world may be facing a truly destabilising dollar shortage, the implications of which could have profound effects on global trade.
Continue reading: Dollar shortage *alert* (plus global trade *alert*)

The world may be facing a truly destabilising dollar shortage, the implications of which could have profound effects on global trade.

Continue reading: Dollar shortage *alert* (plus global trade *alert*)

The robot revolution may be exaggerated, globalisation edition

The developed world is not reshoring or automating half as quickly as the technologists would have us believe, and on the macro level the impact is likely to be insignificant for many years yet.
Continue reading: The robot revolution may be exaggerate…

The developed world is not reshoring or automating half as quickly as the technologists would have us believe, and on the macro level the impact is likely to be insignificant for many years yet.

Continue reading: The robot revolution may be exaggerated, globalisation edition

On the ongoing demise of globalisation

According to strategists Bhanu Baweja, Manik Narain and Maximillian Lin the elasticity of trade to GDP — a measure of wealth creating globalisation — rose to as high as 2.2. in the so-called third wave of globalisation which began in the 1980s. This …

According to strategists Bhanu Baweja, Manik Narain and Maximillian Lin the elasticity of trade to GDP -- a measure of wealth creating globalisation -- rose to as high as 2.2. in the so-called third wave of globalisation which began in the 1980s. This compared to an average of 1.5 since the 1950s. In the post-crisis era, however, the elasticity of trade has fallen to 1.1, not far from the weak average of the 1970s and early 1980s but well below the second and third waves of globalisation.

Continue reading: On the ongoing demise of globalisation

QE: quantitatively shrinking collateral reuse

Adding to the QE scarcity concerns already highlighted by David earlier on Monday, here’s a couple of charts from Citi’s Hans Lorenzen reflecting the fundamental “too much of a good thing” problem with QE.

Continue reading: QE: quantitatively shrinking collateral reuse

Adding to the QE scarcity concerns already highlighted by David earlier on Monday, here’s a couple of charts from Citi’s Hans Lorenzen reflecting the fundamental “too much of a good thing” problem with QE.

Continue reading: QE: quantitatively shrinking collateral reuse

War and Peace in our time

Or, the sharing economy, Marx and you, from Macquarie’s equities team (with our emphasis):

Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte had the unique distinction of being the last French emperor and the first democratically elected French president. His sweep to power by a popular vote in 1848 was achieved by relying on what Karl Marx described as ‘lumpenproletariat’ vote. What is ‘lumpenproletariat’? In Marxist theory these are sections of society that slipped below conventional occupations, and hence no longer belong to either proletariat or capital and financial classes. As described in greater detail in the note, according to Marx it includes various groups, ranging from “discharged jailbirds and vagabonds to pickpockets, tricksters, pimps, porters, tinkers….disintegrated mass, thrown hither and thither.’ It was the same group that concurrently fuelled the rise of the powerful ‘anarchist’ movement, dedicated to ‘blowing up the system’, heightening social and geopolitical tensions led mostly by well-to-do and educated elite.

Continue reading: War and Peace in our time

Or, the sharing economy, Marx and you, from Macquarie’s equities team (with our emphasis):

Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte had the unique distinction of being the last French emperor and the first democratically elected French president. His sweep to power by a popular vote in 1848 was achieved by relying on what Karl Marx described as ‘lumpenproletariat’ vote. What is ‘lumpenproletariat’? In Marxist theory these are sections of society that slipped below conventional occupations, and hence no longer belong to either proletariat or capital and financial classes. As described in greater detail in the note, according to Marx it includes various groups, ranging from “discharged jailbirds and vagabonds to pickpockets, tricksters, pimps, porters, tinkers….disintegrated mass, thrown hither and thither.’ It was the same group that concurrently fuelled the rise of the powerful ‘anarchist’ movement, dedicated to ‘blowing up the system’, heightening social and geopolitical tensions led mostly by well-to-do and educated elite.

Continue reading: War and Peace in our time